Wave analysis and forecast of 24.10 – 31.10

EUR/USD Wave analysis and forecast of 24.10 – 31.10: The pair is likely to decline.
Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.2840.

Our opinion: Sell the pair from correction below the level of 1.2840 with the targets of 1.25 – 1.24 – 1.23.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation of the price above of the level of 1.2840 will enable the price to continue growth to the levels of 1.2950 – 1.30.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the “bullish” correction as the fourth wave has completed. Locally, one-two one-two momentum as the first wave (i) of v is nearing completion. If this assumption is correct, it makes sense to expect that the pair will decline in the fifth wave to the levels of 1.25 – 1.24 – 1.23. Critical level for this scenario is 1.2840. 

 

GBP/USD Wave analysis and forecast of 24.10 – 31.10: Decline in the pair is likely to continue.
Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.5870.

Our opinion: Buy the pair from correction above the level of 1.5870 with the target of 1.6380 – 1.64.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below the level of 1.5870 will allow the price continue the decline to the levels of 1.58 – 1.57 in the “bearish” trend.

Analysis: In accordance with the existing wave pattern of the down-wave we can assume that the wave A of the senior level has completed, taking a shape of a wedge. Locally, it seems that the formation of the wave B has started and within this wave there is one-two one-two momentum (a) and correction to it (b). If this assumption is correct, following the completion of the wave (b) it is expected that the price will rise up to the levels of 1.6380 – 1.64. Critical level for this scenario is 1.5870. 

 

USD/CHF Wave analysis and forecast of 24.10 – 31.10: The pair is likely to grow.
Estimated pivot point is at the level of 0.9390.

Our opinion: Buy the pair from correction above the level of 0.9390 with the target of 0.97 – 0.98.

Alternative scenario: Buy the pair from correction above the level of 0.9390 with the target of 0.97 – 0.98.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the local correction as the fourth wave 4 has completed. Locally, one-two one-two momentum as the first wave is being formed and if this assumption is correct, it is likely that following the completion of the small correction (ii), the price can go up in the fifth wave to the levels of 0.97 – 0.98. Critical level for this scenario is the level of 0.9390. 

 

USD/JPY Wave analysis and forecast of 24.10 – 31.10: The rise in the pair has resumed.
Estimated pivot point is at the level of 106.17.

Our opinion: Buy the pair from correction above the level of 106.17 with the target of 110.00 – 111.00.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation of the price below the level of 106.17 will enable the pair to continue the decline to the level of 104.50.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the “bearish” correction as the fourth wave 4 of (5) has completed in the developing diagonal triangle within the fifth wave of the senior level. Locally, the first one-two one-two wave is being formed. If this assumption is correct, it makes sense to expect that the pair will grow in the fifth final wave 5 of (5) to the level of 111.0.  

 

USD/СAD Wave analysis and forecast of 17.10 – 24.10: Uptrend continues.
Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.1080.

Our opinion: Buy the pair above the level of 1.1080 with the target of 1.14 – 1.15.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation of the price below the level of 1.1080 will enable the pair to continue the decline to the levels of 1.10 – 1.09.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the fourth wave iv of the senior level has completed. Locally it seems that the price is going to reverse and small one-two one two wave are being formed. If this assumption is correct and the price does not break down critical level of 1.1180, the pair is likely to rise to the levels of 1.14 – 1.15 in the fifth wave.

Wave analysis and forecast of 17.10 – 24.10

EUR/USD Wave analysis and forecast of 17.10 – 24.10: Correction is nearing completion. The pair is likely to decline.
Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.29.

Our opinion: Sell the pair from correction below the level of 1.29 with the targets of 1.25 – 1.24 – 1.23.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation above of the level of 1.29 will enable the price to continue growth to the levels of 1.2950 – 1.30.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the “bullish” correction as the fourth wave, having a shape of the zigzag, is nearing completion. If this assumption is correct and the price does not consolidate above the level of1.29, it makes sense to expect that the pair will go down to the levels of 1.25 – 1.24 – 1.23 in the fifth wave.  

 

GBP/USD Wave analysis and forecast of 17.10 – 24.10: The decline in the pair is likely to continue.
Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.6222.

Our opinion: Sell the pair from correction below the level of 1.6222 with the target of 1.58 – 1.55.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation above the level of 1.6222 will allow the price continue the rise up to the levels of 1.6520 – 1.66.

Analysis: Presumably, the third wave of the “bearish” momentum is being developed, within which the correction as the second wave of the junior level (ii) of iii is nearing completion. If this assumption is correct and the price does not break down the critical level of 1.6222, in the medium-term the pair can continue the decline up to the levels of 1.57 – 1.55. 

 

USD/CHF Wave analysis and forecast of 17.10 – 24.10: Local correction is nearing completion. The pair is likely to grow.
Estimated pivot point is at the level of 0.9360.

Our opinion: Buy the pair from the correction above the level of 0.9360 with the target of 0.97 – 0.98.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below of the level of 0.9360 will make the pair continue to decline to the levels of 0.9268.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the local correction as the fourth wave 4 is nearing completion, in the frame of which we can see almost completed zigzag that has nearly reached correction level of 38% from the third wave. If this assumption is correct, in the near future the price can go up to the levels of 0.97 – 0.98 in the fifth wave. 

 

USD/JPY Wave analysis and forecast of 17.10 – 24.10: Formation of the local correction.
Estimated pivot point is at the level of 104.47.

Our opinion: Wait for the completion of correction and in case of the confirming signals, buy the pair above the level of 104.47 with the targets of 110.00 – 111.00.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation of the price below the level of 104.47 will enable the pair to continue the decline to the level of 101.00.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the “bearish” correction as the fourth wave of the senior level 4 of (5) continues in the developing diagonal triangle in the fifth wave of the senior level. If this assumption is correct, it makes sense to expect that the pair will reverse and start to grow in the fifth final wave 5 of (5) up to the level of 111.0.  

 

USD/СAD Wave analysis and forecast of 17.10 – 24.10: Uptrend continues. Locally, the pair is undergoing correction.
Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.1080.

Our opinion: Wait for the completion of correction and buy the pair, in case of the confirming signals, above the level of 1.1080 with the target of 1.14 – 1.15.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation of the price below the level of 1.1080 will enable the pair to continue the decline to the levels of 1.10 – 1.09.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the third wave iii of the senior level has completed. It is likely that within this wave the fifth wave of the junior level (v) of iii has been flattened. Locally, correction in the fourth wave is being formed. If this assumption is correct, following the completion of the correction the pair can go up to the levels of 1.14 – 1.15 in the fifth wave. 

 

Wave analysis and forecast of 10.10 – 17.10

EUR/USD Wave analysis and forecast of 10.10 – 17.10: Formation of the local correction. Downtrend continues.
Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.28.

Our opinion: Sell the pair from correction below the level of 1.28 with the target of 1.23.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation above of the level of 1.28 will enable the price to continue growth to the levels of 1.2840 – 1.29.

Analysis: Presumably, descending momentum in the third wave iii of 1 has completed. Locally, local correction as the fourth wave iv of 1 is being formed, within which a triangle (a)(b)(c)(d)(e) is likely to be formed. If this assumption is correct, after the completion of the local correction it makes sense to expect the other surge of decline up to the level of 1.23.  

 

GBP/USD Wave analysis and forecast of 10.10 – 17.10: The pair is likely to decline.
Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.6233.

Our opinion: Sell the pair from correction below the level of 1.6233 with the target of 1.59 – 1.55.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation above the level of 1.6233 will allow the price continue the rise up to the levels of 1.6520 – 1.66.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the ascending correction as the wave ii of 3 has completed. It is likely that the pair continues to decline in the third wave iii of 3. If this assumption is correct and the price does not break down the critical level of 1.6233 it makes sense to expect that the price will continue to decline to the level of 1.55. 

 

USD/CHF Wave analysis and forecast of 10.10 – 17.10: Uptrend continues. Locally, the pair is undergoing correction.
Estimated pivot point is at the level of 0.9365.

Our opinion: Buy the pair from the correction above the level of 0.9365 with the target of 0.97 – 0.98.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below of the level of 0.9365 will make the pair continue to decline to the levels of 0.9268.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the ascending momentum in the third wave of the senior level has completed. Locally it is likely that the “bearish” correction is being formed as the fourth wave. Within this wave either a triangle or a plane can develop. The targets of the correction are 24% - 0.9488 and 38% - 0.9367; the first one has been already reached by the price. If this assumption is correct, after the completion of the correction the pair will continue to grow up to the levels of 0.97 – 0.98 in the fifth wave of the supposed momentum.  

 

USD/JPY Wave analysis and forecast of 07.10 – 17.10: Uptrend dominates. Correction is nearing completion.
Estimated pivot point is at the level of 107.40.

Our opinion: Buy the pair from correction above the level of 107.40 with the target of 110.00 – 111.00.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation of the price below the level of 107.40 will enable the pair to continue the decline to the level of 106.80.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the “bearish” correction as the fourth wave of the senior level 4 of (5), which has a shape of a plane (with slightly extended wave c of 4, within which a wedge is likely to be formed), is nearing completion. If this assumption is correct, it is expected that the pair will reverse and start to grow to the level of 111.0 in the final fifth wave 5 of (5).  

 

 

USD/СAD Wave analysis and forecast of 10.10 – 17.10: Uptrend continues. The pair is likely to continue growth.
Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.1070.

Our opinion: Buy the pair from the correction above the level of 1.1070 with the target of 1.13.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation of the price below the level of 1.1070 will enable the pair to continue the decline to the levels of 1.10 – 1.09.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the third wave iii of the senior level continues. In this wave the fifth wave of the junior level (v) of iii is being formed. If this assumption is correct and the price does not break down the critical level of 1.1070, it makes sense to expect that the pair will continue to grow to the level of 1.13 in the third wave. 

 

Wave analysis and forecast of 03.10 – 10.10

EUR/USD Wave analysis and forecast of 03.10 – 10.10: The European currency is under pressure, the downtrend continues.
Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.27.

Our opinion: Sell the pair from correction below the level of 1.27 with the target of 1.25.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation above of the level of 1.27 will enable the price to continue growth to the levels of 1.2840 – 1.29, as part of the senior level correction.

Analysis: The formation of the downward impetus in the third wave iii is nearing completion. Locally, final fifth wave (v) of iii is being formed, within which the last descending wave v of (v) of iii is expected. If this assumption is correct, after the completion of the local correction it makes sense to expect another surge of decline to the level of 1.25. In case the price breaks the level of 1.27, the pair is likely to grow as part of the fourth wave to the levels of 1.2840 – 1.29.  

 

GBP/USD Wave analysis and forecast of 03.10 – 10.10: The pair is likely to decline.
Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.6250.

Our opinion: Sell the pair from correction below the level of 1.6250 with the target of 1.60 – 1.5950.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation of the price above the level of 1.6250 will enable the pair to continue the growth to the levels of 1.65 – 1.6550.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of downward impetus in the first wave of the deep medium-term correction continues. At this moment the pair is expected to continue to decline in the fifth wave of the developing “bearish” impetus. Locally, it is most probable that development of the small correction is completed as the wave (iv) of v and the final fifth wave is being formed. 

 

USD/CHF Wave analysis and forecast of 03.10 – 10.10: Ascending trend to remain. The pair is likely to grow.
Estimated pivot point is at the level of 0.9515.

Our opinion: Buy the pair from corrections above 0.9515 with the target of 0.96 – 0.9650.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below the level of 0.9515 will enable the pair to continue to decline to the level of 0.9460.

Analysis: Presumably, an ascending impetus in the third wave of senior level continues to be forming. Locally, the development of the “bullish” impetus in the wave iii of 3 is nearing completion, with the final fifth wave v of (v) of iii developing as its part. If this assumption is correct and the price does not break the critical level of 0.9515, the pair will continue to grow to the levels of 0.96 – 0.9650.  

 

USD/JPY Wave analysis and forecast of 03.10 – 10.10: Uptrend continues.
Estimated pivot point is at the level of 107.98.

Our opinion: Buy the pair from correction above the level of 107.98 with the target of 110.00 – 111.00.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation of the price below the level of 107.98 will enable the pair to continue the decline to the level of 106.80.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the fifth wave of the “bullish” impetus continues on the weekly timeframe. Locally, the fourth wave 4 of (5) is probably completed, and the final fifth wave started to rise. If this assumption is correct and the price does not break down the critical level of 107.98, the logical conclusion is that the pair will continue its growth to the level of 110 .00 – 111.00. In case the critical level is broken, the correction will continue to decline to the level of 106.80. 

 

USD/СAD Wave analysis and forecast of 03.10 – 10.10: With an ascending trend, the pair is likely to continue growth.
Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.1066.

Our opinion: Buy the pair from corrections above the level of 1.1066 with the target of 1.13.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation of the price below the level of 1.1066 will enable the pair to continue to decline to the levels of 1.1010 – 1.010 as part of second wave correction.

Analysis: Presumably, the third wave iii of the senior level continues to be forming, with the third wave of junior order (iii) of iii developing as its part. Locally, the impetus in the first wave i of (iii) and its correction ii of (iii) are completed. If the assumption is correct and the price does not break the critical level of 1.1066, the pair will continue to grow to the levels of 1.12 – 1.13 as part of the third wave.  

 

Forex - Dollar just below 4-year highs, nonfarm payrolls on tap

The U.S. dollar remained just below four-year highs against a basket of other major currencies on Thursday, as the release of positive U.S. jobless claims data lent support ahead of a highly anticipated report on U.S. employment due on Friday.

In a report, the U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending September 27 decreased by 8,000 to 287,000 from the previous week’s revised total of 295,000.

Analysts had expected jobless claims to rise by 2,000 to 297,000 last week.

The data came after payroll processor ADP on Wednesday said that the U.S. private sector added 213,000 jobs last month, slightly ahead of expectations for jobs growth of 210,000.

Investors were now looking ahead to Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, which was expected to show that the economy added more than 200,000 jobs for a sixth successive month in August.

EUR/USD hit session highs of 1.2691, and was last up 0.26% to trade at 1.2651

The euro found support after the European Central Bank held back from announcing additional easing measures in spite of growing concerns over the threat of deflation in the euro area.

ECB President Mario Draghi reiterated that the bank is unanimous in its commitment to using additional unconventional measures if necessary.

Draghi said the bank's new covered bond operation will start in October and its asset purchase program will begin in the fourth quarter of this year. The programs are to run for two years and will substantially increase the ECB’s balance sheet, he said.

The programs will also help get inflation back to the ECB’s long term target of 2%, Draghi said.

The ECB held its benchmark interest rate at a record-low 0.05%, its marginal lending rate at 0.30% and left its deposit facility rate unchanged at -0.20%.

GBP/USD declined 0.34% to nearly one-month lows at 1.6129, even as data showed that U.K. construction sector activity expanded at the fastest rate in eight months in September

In a report, Markit research group said the U.K. construction purchasing managers' index increased to 64.2 last month from a reading of 64.0 in August. Economists had expected the index to fall to 63.5 in September.

USD/JPY hit lows of 108.33, before retracing some of those losses to trade at 108.55, down 0.31% for the day, while USD/CHF edged down 0.12% to 0.9548.

Elsewhere, AUD/USD gained 0.48% to 0.8775 and NZD/USD advanced 0.83% to trade at 0.7850, while USD/CAD eased 0.09% to 1.1153.

Official data earlier showed that Australian building approvals increased by 3.0% in August, exceeding expectations for a 1.0% rise, while Australia's trade deficit narrowed less than expected to A$0.79 billion in August from A$1.08 billion in July.

The US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, was down 0.16% to 85.87, off Tuesday’s peaks of 86.34, a high last seen in June 2010.

Wall Street falls for a fourth day; energy shares, ECB weigh

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks were down at midday on Thursday, putting the S&P 500 on track for a fourth session of losses, as energy shares dropped and the ECB failed to ease worries about the euro zone's recovery.

In a post-meeting news conference, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi gave no indication of an imminent stimulus program through the purchase of sovereign bonds.

Stocks extended Wednesday's sharp decline, with the S&P 500 falling below its 150-day moving average for the first time since November 2012, even after a positive reading on the labor market.

If the S&P 500 ends lower, it would mark its first four-day string of declines since December.

On Wednesday, indexes fell sharply after a patient was diagnosed with Ebola in the United States.

Investors were continuing to watch small-caps after the Russell 2000 index on Wednesday closed in correction territory. The Russell 2000 <.TOY> was down 0.4 percent on Thursday.

"It's been an ugly few days. It's been a confluence of negativity weighing on sentiment, and that's caused sellers to be more aggressive and buyers to be more cautious," said Michael James, managing director of equity trading at Wedbush Securities in Los Angeles.

"When you look at the magnitude of the decline in the Russell index, which started a couple of weeks ago ... that's having a ripple effect across portfolios in general and buyers are just very cautious. If you're a short seller, it's almost like a free-fire zone to continue shorting stocks."

Oil prices fell for the third straight session, with Brent hitting its lowest level since June 2012.

The S&P energy index <.SPNY> was down 1.5 percent and the energy index was in negative territory for the year. Among the most active names, Halliburton Co (N:HAL) shares were down 3.6 percent.

The Dow Jones industrial average (DJI) was falling 72.93 points, or 0.43 percent, to 16,731.78, the S&P 500 (SPX) was losing 12.17 points, or 0.63 percent, to 1,933.99 and the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) was dropping 33.43 points, or 0.76 percent, to 4,388.65.

Friday will bring the September jobs report, expected to show 215,000 jobs added. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, a sign the labor market may be tightening.

Declining issues were outnumbering advancing ones on the NYSE by 2,176 to 805, for a 2.70-to-1 ratio on the downside; on the Nasdaq, 1,559 issues were falling and 1,034 advancing for a 1.51-to-1 ratio favoring decliners.

The benchmark S&P 500 index was posting 3 new 52-week highs and 24 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite was recording 13 new highs and 145 new lows.