Elliott wave analysis and forecast for 03.07.20 – 10.07.20

EUR/USD

The pair EUR/USD remains likely to grow. Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.1180.

Main scenario: consider long positions from corrections above the level of 1.1180 with the target in 1.1495 – 1.1605.

Alternative scenario: breakout and consolidation below the level of 1.1180 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of 1.1095 – 1.1019.

Analysis: Supposedly, a descending correction of larger degree finished developing on the daily time frame in the form of wave 2 and the third wave 3 started developing. On the H4 time frame the inceptive wave 1 of (3) of a new trend is forming, with wave iii of 1 forming inside. On the H1 time frame, apparently, the third wave of smaller degree (iii) of iii of 1 formed, a local correction developed in the form of wave (iv) of iii of 1 and the fifth wave (v) of iii of 1 is developing. If the presumption is correct, the pair will continue to rise to the levels of 1.1495 – 1.1605. The level of 1.1180 is critical in this scenario. Its breakout will allow the pair to continue falling to the levels of 1.1095 – 1.1019.

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                                                                     GBP/USD

The pair GBP/USD remains likely to grow. Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.2250.

Main scenario: consider long positions from corrections above the level of 1.2250 with the target in 1.2880 – 1.3150.

Alternative scenario: breakout and consolidation below the level of 1.2250 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of 1.1635 – 1.1409.

Analysis: Supposedly, the fifth wave of a larger degree V finished developing on the daily time frame, with wave (С) of V completed inside. On the 4-hour time frame the first inceptive wave of a new trend (1) of 1 and a correction is completed in the form of wave 2 of (1) which took the form of a flat. On the H1 time frame, apparently, wave (3) has started developing, inside which the first wave of a smaller degree i of 1 of (3) has been completed. If the presumption is correct, the pair will continue to rise to the levels of 1.2880 – 1.3150. The level of 1.2250 is critical in this scenario as the breakout of it will enable the pair to continue declining to the levels of 1.1635 – 1.1409.

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                                                                     USD/CHF

USD/CHF remains likely to fall. Estimated pivot point is at the level of 0.9530.

Main scenario: consider short positions from corrections below the level of 0.9530 with a target in 0.9323 – 0.9170.

Alternative scenario: breakout and consolidation above the level of 0.9530 will allow the pair to continue rising to the levels of 0.9651 – 0.9781.

Analysis: Supposedly, the descending third wave of larger degree (3) continues developing on the daily time frame, with wave 1 of (3) forming inside. On the H4 time frame, wave v of 1 is forming, with wave  (iii) of v forming inside. On the H1 time frame, apparently a local correction finished developing as wave iv of (iii) and the fifth wave of a smaller degree v of (iii) is forming. If the presumption is correct, the pair will continue to drop to the levels of  0.9323 – 0.9170. The level of 0.9530 is critical in this scenario. Its breakout will allow the pair to continue rising to the levels of 0.9651 – 0.9781.

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                                                                    USD/JPY

USD/JPY is likely to rise. Estimated pivot point is at the level of 106.77.

Main scenario: consider long positions from correction above the level of 106.77 with the target in 108.60 – 109.84.

Alternative scenario: breakout and consolidation below the level of 106.77 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of 105.21 – 104.50.

Analysis: On the daily time frame, apparently a descending correction of larger degree finished forming as wave B and wave С started developing. On the H4 time frame, the first wave 1 of (1) of C has been formed and a local correction as wave 2 of (1) has also been formed. On the H1 time frame, the third wave 3 of (1) has started developing, inside which the first inceptive wave of a new trend of a smaller degree (i) of i of 3 is developing. If the presumption is correct, the pair will continue to rise to the levels of 108.60 – 109.84.  The level of 106.77 is critical in this scenario as its breakout will enable the pair to continue declining to the levels of 105.21 – 104.50.

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                                                                      USD/CAD

USD/CAD remains likely to grow. Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.3486.

Main scenario: consider long positions from corrections above the level of 1.3486 with a target of 1.3740 – 1.3797.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below the level of 1.3486 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of 1.3315 – 1.3189.

Analysis: On the D1 time frame, the third wave of a larger degree is forming (3) which includes wave 1 of (3). On the 4-hour time frame, a downward correction in the form of wave 2 of (3) has been completed and the development of wave 3 of (3) has begun. On the H1 time frame, the first wave of a smaller degree (i) of i of 3 is forming and if the assumption is correct, the growth of the pair will continue to the levels of 1.3740 – 1.3797. The level of 1.3486 is critical in this scenario as a breakout will enable the pair to continue declining to the levels of 1.3315 – 1.3189.

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Elliott wave analysis and forecast for 26/06/2020 – 03/07/2020

EUR/USD

The pair EUR/USD remains likely to grow. Estimated pivot point is at a level of 1.1162.

Main scenario: consider long positions from corrections above the level of 1.1162 with a target of 1.1495 – 1.1605.

Alternative scenario: breakout and consolidation below the level of 1.1162 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of 1.1019 – 1.0769.

Analysis: Supposedly, a descending correction of larger degree finished developing on the daily time frame in the form of wave 2 and the third wave 3 started developing. On the H4 time frame the first counter-trend wave 1 of (3) is forming, with wave iii of 1 forming inside. On the H1 time frame, apparently, the third wave of smaller degree (iii) of iii of 1 formed, a local correction developed in the form of wave (iv) of iii of 1 and the fifth wave (v) of iii of 1 is developing. If the presumption is correct, the pair will continue to rise to the levels of 1.1495 – 1.1605. The level of 1.1162 is critical in this scenario. Its breakout will allow the pair to continue falling to the levels of 1.1019 – 1.0769.

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                                                                     GBP/USD

The pair GBP/USD remains likely to grow. Estimated pivot point is at a level of 1.2333.

Main scenario: consider long positions from corrections above the level of  1.2333 with a target of 1.2880 – 1.3150.

Alternative scenario: breakout and consolidation below the level of 1.2350 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of 1.2069 – 1.1635.

Analysis: Supposedly, the fifth wave of larger degree V finished developing on the daily time frame, with wave  (С) of V completed and the first wave (1) developing inside. On the H4 time frame, wave 1 of (1) formed, a correction is completed in the form of wave 2 of (1), and wave 3 of (1) started developing. On the H1 time frame, apparently, the first wave of junior level i of 3 formed and a local correction is completed in the form of wave ii of 3. If the presumption is correct, the pair will continue to rise to the levels of 1.2880 – 1.3150. The level of 1.2333 is critical in this scenario as the breakout will enable the pair to continue declining to the levels of 1.2069 – 1.1635.

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                                                                     USD/CHF

USD/CHF remains likely to fall. Estimated pivot point is at a level of 0.9530.

Main scenario: consider short positions from corrections below the level of  0.9530 with a target of 0.9323 – 0.9170.

Alternative scenario: breakout and consolidation above the level of  0.9530 will allow the pair to continue rising to the levels of 0.9651 – 0.9781.

Analysis: Supposedly, the descending third wave of larger degree (3) continues developing on the daily time frame, with wave 1 of (3) forming inside. On the H4 time frame, wave v of 1 is forming, with wave  (iii) of v forming inside. On the H1 time frame, apparently a local correction finished developing as wave  iv of (iii) and wave v of (iii) is forming. If the presumption is correct, the pair will continue to drop to the levels of  0.9323 – 0.9170. The level of  0.9530 is critical in this scenario. Its breakout will allow the pair to continue rising to the levels of 0.9651 – 0.9781.

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                                                                    USD/JPY

USD/JPY remains likely to fall. Estimated pivot point is at a level of 107.82.

Main scenario: consider short positions from corrections below the level of 107.82 with a target of 105.21 – 104.50.

Alternative scenario: breakout and consolidation above the level of 107.82 will allow the pair to continue rising to the levels of 108.60 – 109.84.

Analysis: On the daily time frame, apparently a descending correction of larger degree finished forming as wave B and wave С started developing. On the H4 time frame, the first wave 1 of (1) of C formed and a local correction continues forming as wave 2 of (1). Apparently, wave c of 2 is developing on the H1 time frame, with a corrective wave (ii) of c completed and wave (iii) of c forming inside. If the presumption is correct, the pair will continue to drop to the levels of 105.21 – 104.50. The level of 107.82 is critical in this scenario as the breakout will enable the pair to continue growing to the levels of 108.60 – 109.84.

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                                                                    USD/CAD

USD/CAD remains likely to grow. Estimated pivot point is at a level of 1.3481.

Main scenario: consider long positions from corrections above the level of 1.3481 with a target of 1.3875 – 1.4047.

Alternative scenario: breakout and consolidation below the level of 1.3481 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of 1.3189 – 1.2948.

Analysis: On the D1 time frame, supposedly a descending correction finished developing in the form of second wave of larger degree (2), and wave (3) started forming. On the 4-hour time frame, a descending correction finished developing in the form of wave 2 of (3) and wave 3 of (3) started forming, with wave i of 3 forming inside. Apparently, the wave (iii) of i is developing on the H1 time frame.  If this assumption is correct, the pair will continue to rise to 1.3875 – 1.4047. The level of 1.3481 is critical in this scenario as the breakout will enable the pair to continue declining to the levels of 1.3189 – 1.2948.

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Elliott wave analysis and forecast for 19/04/2020 – 24/04/2020

EUR/USD

EUR/USD remains likely to fall. Estimated pivot point is at a level of 1.0996.

Main scenario: Consider short positions from corrections below the level of 1.0996 with a target of 1.0630 – 1.0500.

Alternative scenario: breakout and consolidation above the level of 1.0996 will allow the pair to continue rising to the levels of 1.1170 – 1.1241

Analysis: Supposedly, the descending fifth wave of larger degree (5) of С continues developing on the daily time frame, with the first wave 1 of (5) formed inside. On the 4-hour time frame, a local correction finished developing in the form of wave 2 of (5) and wave 3 of (5) started forming. Apparently, an ascending correction finished developing as wave ii of 3  and wave iii of 3 started forming on the H1 time frame. If the presumption is correct, the pair will continue to drop to the levels of 1.0630 – 1.0500. The level of 1.0996 is critical in this scenario. Its breakout will allow the pair to continue rising to the levels of 1.1170 – 1.1241.

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                                                                  GBP/USD

GBP/USD is correcting, still likely to fall. Estimated pivot point is at a level of 1.2738.

Main scenario: Consider short positions below the level of 1.2738 with a target of 1.1177 – 1.0687

Alternative scenario: breakout and consolidation above the level of 1.2738 will allow the pair to continue rising to the levels of 1.3201 – 1.3509.

Analysis: Supposedly, the fifth wave of larger degree V continues developing on the daily time frame, with a correction completed in the form of wave (2) of V inside. The third wave (3) of V is developing on the H4 time frame, with wave 3 of (3) formed and a correction developed as wave 4 of (3) inside. Apparently, the fifth wave 5 of (2) begins developing on the H1 time frame. If the presumption is correct, the pair will resume falling to the levels of 1.1177 – 1.0687. The level of 1.2738 is critical in this scenario as the breakout will enable the pair to continue rising to the levels of 1.3201 – 1.3509.

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                                                                    USD/CHF

USD/CHF remains likely to fall. Estimated pivot point is at a level of 0.9803.

Main scenario: Consider short positions from corrections below the level of 0.9803 with a target of 0.9167 – 0.9000.

Alternative scenario: breakout and consolidation above the level of 0.9803 will allow the pair to continue rising to the levels of 1.0024 – 1.0235.

Analysis: Supposedly, the descending third wave of larger degree (3) continues developing on the daily time frame, with wave 3 of (3) forming inside. On the H4 time frame, the first wave of smaller degree  i of 3 formed and a correction finished developing in the form of wave ii of 3. Apparently, the third wave  iii of 3 started developing on the H1 time frame, with a local correction (ii) of iii completed and wave (iii) of iii forming inside. If the presumption is correct, the pair will continue to drop to the levels of 0.9167 – 0.9000. The level of 0.9803 is critical in this scenario. Its breakout will allow the pair to continue rising to the levels of 1.0024 – 1.0235.

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                                                                    USD/JPY

USD/JPY remains likely to fall. Estimated pivot point is at a level of 111.67.

Main scenario: Consider short positions from corrections below the level of 111.67 with a target of 101.08 – 94.58.

Alternative scenario: breakout and consolidation above the level of 111.67 will allow the pair to continue rising to the levels of 114.53 – 118.70.

Analysis: On the daily time frame, supposedly, a big horizontal correction finished forming as a triangle-shaped wave (В) of B. On the H4 time frame, wave (С) of B started developing, with the first wave  i of 1 of (C) formed  and a local correction completed in the form of wave ii of 1 of (C) inside. Apparently, a local correction is developing as wave ii of 1 of (C) on the H1 time frame.  If this assumption is correct, the pair will continue to drop to the levels 101.08 – 98.73 once the correction’s over. The level of 111.67 is critical in this scenario as the breakout will enable the pair to continue growing to the levels of 114.53 – 118.70.

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                                                                   USD/CAD

USD/CAD remains likely to fall. Estimated pivot point is at a level of 1.4355.

Main scenario: short positions should be considered from corrections below the level of 1.4355 with a target of 1.3788 – 1.3598.

Alternative scenario: breakout and consolidation above the level of 1.4355 will allow the pair to continue rising to the levels of 1.4562 – 1.4800.

Analysis: On the D1 time frame, supposedly, a descending correction finished developing in the form of second wave of larger degree (2), and wave (3) started forming. Supposedly, the first counter-trend wave of smaller degree 1 of (3) formed and a descending correction is developing in the form of wave 2 of (3) on the H4 time frame. Apparently, wave a of 2 has formed and wave b of 2 is developing on the H1 time frame. If the presumption is correct, the pair will continue to drop to the levels 1.3788 – 1.3598 once wave b of 2 is completed. The level of 1.4355 is critical in this scenario as the breakout will enable the pair to continue rising to the levels of 1.4562 – 1.4800.

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Wave analysis and forecast for 31/01/2020 – 07/02/2020

EUR/USD

The pair EUR/USD remains likely to grow. Estimated pivot point is at a level of 1.0977.

Main scenario: long positions will be relevant above the level of 1.0977 with a target of 1.1242 – 1.1406.

Alternative scenario:breakout and consolidation below the level of 1.0977 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of  1.0877 – 1.0800.

Analysis: Supposedly, a descending correction of senior level finished developing on the daily time frame in the form of the second wave 2 and the third wave 3 is starting to develop. On the H4 time frame, apparently, the first counter-trend wave 1 of (1) of 3 has formed, a descending correction is completed as the second wave 2 of (1) of 3 and wave 3 of (1) has started forming. On the H1 time frame, apparently, the first wave of junior level i of 3 of (1) has formed and a local correction has finished developing in the form of wave ii of 3 of (1). If the presumption is correct, the pair may be expected to rise to the  levels of 1.1242 – 1.1406 as part of wave  iii of 3. The level 1.0977 is critical in this scenario.

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                                                                    GBP/USD

The pair GBP/USD remains likely to fall. Estimated pivot point is at a level of 1.3281.

Main scenario: short positions should be considered from corrections below the level of  1.3281 with a target of 1.2735 – 1.2551.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation above the level of 1.3281 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of 1.3514 – 1.3800.

Analysis: Supposedly, a descending correction of senior level finished developing on the daily time frame in the form of the second wave 2 and wave (3) has started to develop. On the H4 time frame, supposedly, the first wave 1 of (3) has formed and a descending correction 2 of (3) is developing, with wave b of 2 forming as a triangle inside. Apparently, the ultimate wave of triangle (e) of b of 2 is forming on the H1 time frame.  If this assumption is correct, the pair will continue to decline to the levels of 1.2735 – 1.2551 once the wave finishes forming. The level of 1.3281 is critical in this scenario as the breakout will enable the pair to continue rising to the levels of 1.3514 – 1.3800.

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                                                                     USD/CHF

The pair USD/CHF remains likely to fall. Estimated pivot point is at a level of 0.9818.

Main scenario: short positions should be considered from corrections below the level of  0.9818 with a target of 0.9550 – 0.9500.

Alternative scenario:breakout and consolidation above the level of 0.9818 will allow the pair to continue the rise up to the levels of 1.0022 – 1.0145.

Analysis: On the daily time frame, supposedly, an ascending correction of senior level has finished developing in the form of wave (2) and wave (3) has started forming. The third wave 3 of (3) is developing on the H4 time frame, with the first wave of junior level i of 3 forming inside. Apparently, a local correction is nearing completion in the form of wave (iv) of i on the H1 time frame.  If this assumption is correct, the pair will continue to fall to the levels 0.9550 – 0.9500 once the correction’s over. The level of 0.9818 is critical in this scenario. Its breakout will allow the pair to continue rising to the levels of 1.0022 – 1.0145.

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                                                                     USD/JPY

The pair USD/JPY remains likely to grow. Estimated pivot point is at a level of 107.66.

Main scenario: long positions should be considered from corrections above the level of 107.66 with a target of 111.00 – 112.35.

Alternative scenario:Breakout and consolidation below the level of 107.66 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of 106.46 – 104.48.

Analysis: On the daily time frame, supposedly, a large correction is completed in the form of wave (B) of senior level and ascending wave (С) has started to form, with the first wave 1 of (C) developing inside. On the H4 time-frame, apparently, the first wave of junior level  i of 1 of (С) has formed and local correction ii of 1 has finished developing. Apparently, wave  iii of 1 started forming on the H1 time frame, with wave  (i) of iii formed and the local correction (ii) of iii nearing completion inside. If the presumption is correct, the pair will continue to rise to the levels of 111.00 – 112.35 once the correction is over. The level of 107.66 is critical in this scenario as the breakout will enable the pair to continue declining to the levels of 106.46 – 104.48.

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                                                                    USD/CAD

The pair USD/CAD remains likely to grow. Estimated pivot point is at a level of 1.2950.

Main scenario: long positions should be considered from corrections above the level of 1.2950 with a target of 1.3564 – 1.3666.

Alternative scenario:breakout and consolidation below the level of 1.2950 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of 1.2846 – 1.2656.

Analysis: Supposedly, a descending correction finished developing in the form of the second wave of senior level (2) on the D1 time frame.  Supposedly, the third wave (3) starts developing on the H4 time frame with the first counter-trend wave of junior level (i) of i of 1 of (3) forming inside. Apparently, wave v of (i) is nearing completion on the H1 time frame. If this assumption is correct, the pair will continue to rise to 1.3564 – 1.3666 after the local correction (ii) of i of 1 of (3) has finished. The level of 1.2950 is critical in this scenario as the breakout will enable the pair to continue declining to the levels of 1.2846 – 1.2656.

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