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Monday, September 29, 2014

Daily Strategy September 29th, 2014

EURUSD:
Our preference: Bearish setups on a pull-back move to within 1.2685 – 1.2725 with targets @ 1.2665 & 1.2642 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.2725, watch for bullish setups with 1.2741 as target and 1.2764 in extension.
Comment: EUR/USD remains capped by negative trendline. Note that hourly stochastic and RSI are oversold. Watch the trendline area and level of 1.2715 (50% Fibonacci).

GOLD:
Our preference: Bearish setups within 1215.50 – 1225.30 with targets @ 1212.10 & 1206.68 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1225.30, watch for bullish setups with 1229.63 as target and 1235.05 in extension.
Comment: Gold price remains in consolidation mode. Note that 20 MA has crossed above 50 MA on hourly chart. The price is moving above 20 MA and 50 MA on hourly chart. However, intraday bias is neutral. Hourly stochastic and RSI are mixed.

Sunday, September 28, 2014

Microsoft offers first look at new Windows - and gives it a name


(Reuters) - Microsoft Corp will unveil a new name for its best-known product on Tuesday when it offers the first official glimpse of its latest Windows operating system.
The project, known for the past few years as "Threshold" inside the software company and "Windows 9" outside it, will likely get an entirely new brand, or just be called Windows, analysts said, ahead of its full release early next year.
The name change is symbolic of a new direction and style forMicrosoft, which is veering away from an aggressive focus on Windows and PCs, the hallmark of previous Chief Executive Officer Steve Ballmer. The new, quieter emphasis is on selling services across all devices and is championed by new boss Satya Nadella.
The switch also represents a desire to erase the ill will generated by Windows 8, an ambitious attempt to redesign Windows with tablet users in mind, which ended up annoying and confusing the core market of customers who use mice and keyboards.
"Windows 8 was not a shining moment for Microsoft," said Michael Silver, an analyst at tech research firm Gartner. "Probably the biggest issue that lingers is the negative brand equity in the name."
Many users howled in protest over the death of the start-button menu and the introduction of a colorful grid of squares or tiles representing apps in what became known as the modern user interface, even though they could easily switch to a traditional desktop mode.
Judging by recent leaks online, which Microsoft has not tried to discredit, the start-button menu will come back in the next Windows, with an option of tacking on tiles if preferred.
But the problem of users having to toggle between the modern interface and the old-style desktop - for instance to use the full version of Excel spreadsheet software - has yet to be solved.
"The schizophrenic behavior between the modern user interface and the Windows desktop has got to go away," said David Johnson, an analyst at tech research firm Forrester. "They have to smooth that out."
Microsoft declined to comment on the new name, or what it plans to unveil on Tuesday.
The Redmond, Washington-based company has said only that it will have a "discussion" about where Windows is headed at a stylish event space in San Francisco on Tuesday.
The choice of wording and venue are key to a humbler, lower-profile Microsoft under Nadella, who is keen to rebuild respect in the Bay Area and Silicon Valley as it moves away from the PC and to play a bigger part in the mobile computing world fashioned by Apple Inc and Google Inc.
Nadella's slogan is "mobile first, cloud first," and although he will not be at the San Francisco event - he is traveling in Asia - that theme will be at the fore.
"This is a launching pad and catalyst for Nadella's holistic cloud vision over the coming years," said Daniel Ives, an analyst at investment bank FBR Capital Markets. "Windows 9 is a potentially game-changing product release for Microsoft."
Nadella is resigned to the fact that sales of PCs have leveled off, and with it sales of Windows. With the explosion of smartphones and tablets, Windows now powers only 14 percent of computing devices sold last year, according to Gartner.
His response is to focus on selling high-quality services - such as the Office suite of applications or storing documents in the cloud - to people on whatever device or system they are using.
"Microsoft is changing from a company that was Windows-centric to one that is services-centric," said Silver at Gartner. "It has to be that way. Windows revenue is likely going to decline, and Microsoft's task is to replace that Windows revenue with revenue from services on all sorts of platforms."
The challenge is to come up with killer apps and services users can't live without.
"Microsoft built their business on being very good at delivering what people needed in the moment, for example Excel in the 1990s," said Johnson at Forrester. "That's what Microsoft has to get back to, innovating and creating things that people find indispensable."

Saturday, September 27, 2014

Forex Trading Alert: How Low Could EUR/USD Go?

The European Central Bank cut interest rates to a record-low 0.05% from 0.15%, surprising most market participants. As a result, EUR/USD dropped to a 14-month low, declining below the strong support zone. Are there any important levels that could stop currency bears' charge?
In our opinion, the following forex trading positions are justified - summary:
EUR/USD: none
GBP/USD: none
USD/JPY: none
USD/CAD: none
USD/CHF: none
AUD/USD: none


EUR/USD


The medium-term picture has deteriorated significantly as EUR/USD accelerated declines after a drop below the recent lows and the 70.7% Fibonacci retracement level. With this downward move, the pair reached the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement, which is currently reinforced by the long-term green support line based on the Nov 2012 and Jul 2013 lows. We think that this strong support area should at least paused further deterioration in the nearest future and triggered a corrective upswing. Why this scenario is quite likely at the moment? Let's take a closer look at the daily chart and find out.

From this perspective, we see that EUR/USD declined not only to the support levels that we discussed earlier, but also approached the 161.8% Fibonacci price projection. On top of that, in this area, the size of the downswing corresponds to the height of the declining wedge, which may reduce the selling pressure in the near future. Therefore, if this support zone holds, we may see a corrective upswing to at least the recent highs around 1.3145-1.3160. Please note that despite all these positive technical factors, we should keep in mind that there are no buy signals, which could support currency bulls.
Very short-term outlook: mixed
Short-term outlook: mixed
MT outlook: mixed
LT outlook: bearish
Trading position (short-term): In our opinion no positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective at the moment.


Wave analysis and forecast of 26.09 – 03.10

EUR/USD Wave analysis and forecast of 26.09 – 03.10: European currency is under pressure. Downtrend continues.
Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.29.

Our opinion: Sell the pair from correction below the level of 1.29 with the target of 1.2650 – 1.2620.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation above of the level of 1.29 will enable the price to continue growth to the levels of 1.31 – 1.3150, as part of the senior level correction.

Analysis: The formation of the downward impetus in the third wave iii is nearing correction. Locally, final fifth wave (v) of iii is being formed, within which the third wave of the junior level iii of (v) has completed and the correction as the wave iv of (v) is being formed. If this assumption is correct, after the completion of the local correction it makes sense to expect another surge of decline to the levels of 1.2650 – 1.2620 in the small fifth wave. Critical level for this scenario is 1.2900. Breakdown of this level will confirm the beginning of the “bullish” correction as the fourth wave of the senior level.
EURUSD H1 

EURUSD H4 

EURUSD Dayli 

GBP/USD Wave analysis and forecast of 26.09 – 03.10: The pair is likely to decline.
Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.6415.

Our opinion: Sell the pair from correction below the level of 1.6415 with the target of 1.60 – 1.59.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation above the level of 1.6415 will allow the price continue the rise up to the levels of 1.65 – 1.6550.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the downward impetus in the first wave of the deep medium-term correction continues. At the moment it is likely that the pair will continue to decline in the fifth wave of the developing “bearish” impetus. Locally, it seems that a small local correction as the wave (ii) of v has completed. If this assumption is correct, the pair will continue to decline to the level of 1.60 in the third wave (iii) of v. Critical level for this scenario is 1.6415.
GPBUSD H1 

GPBUSD H4 

USD/CHF Wave analysis and forecast of 26.09 – 03.10: Uptrend continues. The pair is likely to grow.
Estimated pivot point is at the level of 0.9413.

Our opinion: Buy the pair from the correction above the level of 0.9413 with the target of 0.9550 – 0.96.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below of the level of 0.9413 will make the pair continue to decline to the levels of 0.9350 – 0.93.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the ascending momentum in the third wave of the senior level continues. Locally, “bullish” impetus in the wave iii of 3 is nearing completion, within which the fifth final wave (v) of iii is being formed. If this assumption is correct, and the price does not break down the critical level of 0.9413, the pair will continue to rise up to the levels of 0.9550 – 0.96.
USDCHF H1 

USDCHF H4 

USDCHF Daily 

USD/JPY Wave analysis and forecast of 26.09 – 03.10: Uptrend dominates.
Estimated pivot point is at the level of 108.40.

Our opinion: Buy the pair from correction above the level of 108.40 with the target of 110.00 – 111.00.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation of the price below the level of 108.40 will enable the pair to continue the decline to the levels of 107.50 – 107.00 as part of correction.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the fifth wave of the “bullish” impetus continues on the weekly timeframe. Locally it seems that the extension in the third wave 3 of (5) is being formed, within which the final fifth wave v of 3 is likely to be formed. If this assumption is correct and the price does not break down the critical level of 108.40, it makes sense to expect continuation of the growth up to the levels of 110.00 – 111.00.
USDJPY H1 

USDJPY H4 

USD/СAD Wave analysis and forecast of 26.09 – 03.10: Uptrend continues. The pair is likely to rise.
Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.1050.

Our opinion: Buy the pair from the correction above the level of 1.1050 with the target of 1.12.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation of the price below the level of 1.1050 will enable the pair to continue the decline to the levels of 1.10 – 1.0950.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the third wave iii of the senior level continues. In this wave the third wave of the junior level (iii) of iii is being formed. Locally the small correction ii of (iii) has completed and the wave iii of (iii) seems to start developing. If this assumption is correct and the price does not break down the critical level of 1.1050, the pair will continue to rise up to the levels of 1.12 – 1.13.
USDCAD H1 

USDCAD H4 

Friday, September 26, 2014

EUR/USD Hits Flagged Target

EUR/USD bear trend extension risk for late September
  • We have stressed over the past week that “we still aim lower into latter September, for an important cluster of support from the 2012-14 retracement at 1.2785 and key 2013 lows 1.2765 and 1.2745” and the push through this key support area, 1.2785/65/45, leaves thereat for a still more negative theme.
  • We now see bias to a significant 2012 weekly swing low at 1.2662.
  • A break aims for 1.2502 and 1.2460.
  • We look for resistance on a bounce at 1.2785/90 and 1.216; a reversal of the trend line from mid-August, now 1.2850 is needed for a neutral shift.
WHAT CHANGES THIS?
  • Above 1.2816 eases bear risks; through 1.2850 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 1.2995.



Forex - EUR/USD drops on robust U.S. economic growth data

The euro flirted with 22-month lows against the dollar for a second consecutive day on Friday after data revealed the U.S. economy grew at a healthy clip in the second quarter.
In U.S. trading, EUR/USD was down 0.49% at 1.2688, up from a session low of 1.2679 and off a high of 1.2761.
The pair was likely to find support at 1.2660, the low from Nov. 13, 2012, and resistance at 1.2903, Tuesday's high.
The dollar advanced after the Commerce Department said U.S. gross domestic product expanded at an annual rate of 4.6% in the second quarter, in line with the consensus forecast, after contracting by 2.1% in the first three months of the year.
U.S. second quarter GDP was initially reported to have increased by 4.2%.
The positive data fueled already growing expectations for rate hikes to kick in earlier next year than once anticipated.
On Thursday, Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher said that the U.S. central bank may start raising interest rates around the spring of 2015, earlier than many market expectations.
Separately, the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan final consumer sentiment index remained unchanged at 84.6 this month, just shy of expectations for an uptick to 84.7.
The euro, meanwhile, continued to come under pressure after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi reiterated on Thursday the bank's commitment to act with more policy measures to boost inflation in the euro zone.
A day earlier, Mario Draghi had already vowed to keep monetary policy "accommodative" for as long as needed, and to use every tool at the ECB's disposal to fight deflation.
Elsewhere, the euro was down against the pound, with EUR/GBP down 0.12% at 0.7804, and up against the yen, with EUR/JPY up 0.03% at 138.68.

EUR/USD: attempting to break below major trend-line

The EUR/USD pair has reached support from a major multi-year trend-line from the 2000 lows situated at 1.2725. It is possible it will pause and consolidate at this level, or possibly even reverse and start rising, however, the monthly chart looks especially bearish after 3 down months in a row, and if this month ends at the current level or lower then that will be a probable sign of even further weakness. 


The current short-term and very short-term bear trends are also a factor favouring more downside. The major trend-line from 2000 needs to be decisively breached first, however, so I would be 
looking for a break below 1.2690 for confirmation of further downside, with the next target lower at the S3 monthly pivot situated at 1.2593, although the potential for losses is much higher, with 1.2100 as longer-term target.

AUD/USD: Short Position Still In Play

Talking Points:
  • AUD/USD Technical Strategy: Short at 0.9186
  • Support:0.8826, 0.8665, 0.8406
  • Resistance:0.8955, 0.9112, 0.9208

The Australian Dollar managed an upward correction after sliding to the weakest level in eight months against its US namesake. A daily close below the 61.8% Fibonacci expansionat 0.8826 exposes the 76.4% level at 0.8665. Alternatively, a reversal back above the 50% Fib at 0.8955 opens the door for a test of the 0.9085-9112 area, marked by the 38.2% expansion and the September 16 high.
We entered short AUD/USD at 0.9186 and have since taken profit on half ofour exposure. The rest remains open to capture further downside momentum with a stop-loss at breakeven (0.9186).

Thursday, September 25, 2014

Forex - Euro slips to fresh 14-month lows vs. dollar

The euro slipped to fresh 14-month lows against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, as concerns over the outlook for growth in the euro zone continued to weigh on the single currency, while positive U.S. data lent further support to the greenback.

EUR/USD hit 1.2763 during late Asian trade, the pair's lowest since July 2013; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.2757, slipping 0.18%.
The pair was likely to find support at 1.2754 and resistance at 1.2864, Wednesday's high.
The euro came under pressure after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said on Wednesday that the bank will keep its monetary policy "accommodative" for as long as needed, and will use every tool at its disposal to fight deflation.
"Monetary policy will remain accommodating for a long time and I can tell you that the Governing Council is unanimous in committing itself to using the tools at its disposal to bring inflation back to just under 2%."
The comments came after data showed that Germany's Ifo business confidence index deteriorated for the fifth successive month in September, adding to fears that the euro zone’s largest economy is losing momentum.
Meanwhile, demand for the dollar found further support after a report showed that U.S. new home sales data rose 18.0% last month to 504,000 units, the highest level since May 2008.
Earlier in the week, a report showed that the U.S. manufacturing sector expanded in September, matching the rate of growth seen in the previous month, which was the strongest in over four years.
The strong data added to expectations that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates sooner than markets are expecting.
The euro was steady against the pound, with EUR/GBP inching up 0.03% to 0.7824.
Later in the day, the U.S. was to release data on durable goods orders, as well as the weekly report on jobless claims.

Economic Calendar

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

Wednesday, September 24, 2014

DAILY FORECAST 24/09/2014

Wednesday, 24 September 2014 - 4:00 AM GMT
EUR/USD  
Risk reward: 1.62  
Trend: Up  
Buy at 1.2839 SL 1.2807 TP 1.2896  
 
USD/JPY  
Risk reward: 0.91  
Trend: Down  
Sell at 108.69 SL 109.01 TP 108.16  
 
GBP/USD  
Risk reward: 2.09  
Trend: Strong Up  
Buy at 1.6376 SL 1.6344 TP 1.6447  
 
USD/CHF  
Risk reward: 1.13  
Trend: Down  
Sell at 0.9407 SL 0.9439 TP 0.9358  
 
The current support/resistance levels are:
 
EUR/USD 1.3474, 1.3454, 1.3422 - 1.3596, 1.3616, 1.3648  
USD/JPY 100.79, 100.68, 100.50 - 101.69, 101.80, 101.98  
GBP/USD 1.7018, 1.6992, 1.6951 - 1.7168, 1.7194, 1.7235  
USD/CHF 0.8925, 0.8911, 0.8889 - 0.8969, 0.8983, 0.9005  

AUDUSD SIGNAL 24/09/2014

BUY 0.8833 SL 0.8813 TP 0.8900

Monday, September 22, 2014

DAILY FORECAST 22-09-2014

Monday, 22 September 2014 - 4:00 AM GMT
EUR/USD  
Risk reward: 1.62  
Trend: Strong Up  
Buy at 1.2854 SL 1.2822 TP 1.2925  
 
USD/JPY  
Risk reward: 0.91  
Trend: Neutral  
Sell at 108.93 SL 109.25 TP 108.61  
 
GBP/USD  
Risk reward: 2.09  
Trend: Strong Up  
Buy at 1.6333 SL 1.6301 TP 1.6402  
 
USD/CHF  
Risk reward: 1.13  
Trend: Down  
Sell at 0.9391 SL 0.9423 TP 0.9335  
 
The current support/resistance levels are:
 
EUR/USD 1.3474, 1.3454, 1.3422 - 1.3596, 1.3616, 1.3648  
USD/JPY 100.79, 100.68, 100.50 - 101.69, 101.80, 101.98  
GBP/USD 1.7018, 1.6992, 1.6951 - 1.7168, 1.7194, 1.7235  
USD/CHF 0.8925, 0.8911, 0.8889 - 0.8969, 0.8983, 0.9005 

AUDUSD SIGNAL

BUY 0.8908 SL 0.8890 TP 0.8940


Saturday, September 20, 2014

Wave analysis and forecast of 19.09 – 26.09

EUR/USD Wave analysis and forecast of 19.09 – 26.09: European currency is under pressure. Downtrend continues.
Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.3000.

Our opinion: Sell the pair from correction below the level of 1.3000 with the target of 1.2750 – 1.27.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation above of the level of 1.30 will enable the price to continue growth to the levels of 1.31 – 1.3150, as part of the senior level correction.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the “bearish” trend in the third wave iii is still ongoing. Locally, it is likely that the fourth wave of the junior level (iv) of iii has completed and the fifth wave (v) of iii started to develop. If this assumption is correct and the price does not break down the critical level of 1.30, it makes sense to expect that the pair will continue to decline to the level of 1.2750.
EURUSD H4 

EURUSD Dayli 

GBP/USD Wave analysis and forecast of 19.09 – 26.09: Correction is nearing completion. The pair is likely to decline.
Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.6450.

Our opinion: Sell the pair below the level of 1.6450 with the target of 1.59 – 1.5850.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation above the level of 1.6450 will make the price continue the rise up to the levels of 1.65 – 1.6550.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the downward impetus in the first wave of the deep medium-term correction continues. At the moment it is likely that the correction in the fourth wave is nearing completion. If this assumption is correct, the pair will soon continue to drop to the levels of 1.59 – 1.5850.
GPBUSD H4 

GPBUSD Daily 

USD/CHF Wave analysis and forecast of 19.09 – 26.09: Uptrend continues/ Locally, the pair is undergoing correction.
Estimated pivot point is at the level of 0.93.

Our opinion: Buy the pair from the correction above the level of 0.93 with the target of 0.95.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below of the level of 0.93 will make it possible for the pair to continue the decline to the levels of 0.9250 – 0.92.

Analysis: The formation of the ascending momentum in the third wave iii of the senior level continues. Locally, “bullish” impetus in the wave (iii) of iii has completed and local correction as the fourth wave (iv) is moving to the levels of 0.9350 – 0.93.
USDCHF H4 

USDCHF Daily 

USD/JPY Wave analysis and forecast of 19.09 – 26.09: The pair is likely to grow.
Estimated pivot point is at the level of 107.35.

Our opinion: Buy the pair from correction above the level of 107.35 with the target of 109.50 – 110.00.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation of the price below the level of 107.35 will enable the pair to continue the decline to the levels of 107.0 – 106.50 as part of correction.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the fifth wave of the “bullish” impetus continues on the weekly timeframe, with the target level of 110.0. Locally it seems that the third wave of the junior level 3 of (5) has completed, within which extension has been formed. If this assumption is correct minor correction as the fourth wave will be formed and the pair will continue to rise up to the levels of 109.50 – 110.00.
USDJPY H4 

USDJPY Daily 

USD/СAD Wave analysis and forecast of 19.09 – 26.09: Uptrend continues. Locally, the pair is undergoing correction.
Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.0807.

Our opinion: Buy the pair from the correction above the level of 1.0807 with the target of 1.12.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation of the price below the level of 1.0807 will enable the pair to continue the decline to the levels of 1.0750 – 1.07.

Analysis: Presumably, local “bearish” correction as the second wave of the junior level (ii) of iii of 5 is nearing completion. If this assumption is correct, after the completion of the correction the pair will continue to grow to the levels of 1.11 – 1.12 in the third wave. Critical level for this scenario is 1.0807.
USDCAD H4 

USDCAD Daily