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Saturday, September 27, 2014

Wave analysis and forecast of 26.09 – 03.10

EUR/USD Wave analysis and forecast of 26.09 – 03.10: European currency is under pressure. Downtrend continues.
Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.29.

Our opinion: Sell the pair from correction below the level of 1.29 with the target of 1.2650 – 1.2620.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation above of the level of 1.29 will enable the price to continue growth to the levels of 1.31 – 1.3150, as part of the senior level correction.

Analysis: The formation of the downward impetus in the third wave iii is nearing correction. Locally, final fifth wave (v) of iii is being formed, within which the third wave of the junior level iii of (v) has completed and the correction as the wave iv of (v) is being formed. If this assumption is correct, after the completion of the local correction it makes sense to expect another surge of decline to the levels of 1.2650 – 1.2620 in the small fifth wave. Critical level for this scenario is 1.2900. Breakdown of this level will confirm the beginning of the “bullish” correction as the fourth wave of the senior level.
EURUSD H1 

EURUSD H4 

EURUSD Dayli 

GBP/USD Wave analysis and forecast of 26.09 – 03.10: The pair is likely to decline.
Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.6415.

Our opinion: Sell the pair from correction below the level of 1.6415 with the target of 1.60 – 1.59.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation above the level of 1.6415 will allow the price continue the rise up to the levels of 1.65 – 1.6550.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the downward impetus in the first wave of the deep medium-term correction continues. At the moment it is likely that the pair will continue to decline in the fifth wave of the developing “bearish” impetus. Locally, it seems that a small local correction as the wave (ii) of v has completed. If this assumption is correct, the pair will continue to decline to the level of 1.60 in the third wave (iii) of v. Critical level for this scenario is 1.6415.
GPBUSD H1 

GPBUSD H4 

USD/CHF Wave analysis and forecast of 26.09 – 03.10: Uptrend continues. The pair is likely to grow.
Estimated pivot point is at the level of 0.9413.

Our opinion: Buy the pair from the correction above the level of 0.9413 with the target of 0.9550 – 0.96.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below of the level of 0.9413 will make the pair continue to decline to the levels of 0.9350 – 0.93.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the ascending momentum in the third wave of the senior level continues. Locally, “bullish” impetus in the wave iii of 3 is nearing completion, within which the fifth final wave (v) of iii is being formed. If this assumption is correct, and the price does not break down the critical level of 0.9413, the pair will continue to rise up to the levels of 0.9550 – 0.96.
USDCHF H1 

USDCHF H4 

USDCHF Daily 

USD/JPY Wave analysis and forecast of 26.09 – 03.10: Uptrend dominates.
Estimated pivot point is at the level of 108.40.

Our opinion: Buy the pair from correction above the level of 108.40 with the target of 110.00 – 111.00.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation of the price below the level of 108.40 will enable the pair to continue the decline to the levels of 107.50 – 107.00 as part of correction.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the fifth wave of the “bullish” impetus continues on the weekly timeframe. Locally it seems that the extension in the third wave 3 of (5) is being formed, within which the final fifth wave v of 3 is likely to be formed. If this assumption is correct and the price does not break down the critical level of 108.40, it makes sense to expect continuation of the growth up to the levels of 110.00 – 111.00.
USDJPY H1 

USDJPY H4 

USD/СAD Wave analysis and forecast of 26.09 – 03.10: Uptrend continues. The pair is likely to rise.
Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.1050.

Our opinion: Buy the pair from the correction above the level of 1.1050 with the target of 1.12.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation of the price below the level of 1.1050 will enable the pair to continue the decline to the levels of 1.10 – 1.0950.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the third wave iii of the senior level continues. In this wave the third wave of the junior level (iii) of iii is being formed. Locally the small correction ii of (iii) has completed and the wave iii of (iii) seems to start developing. If this assumption is correct and the price does not break down the critical level of 1.1050, the pair will continue to rise up to the levels of 1.12 – 1.13.
USDCAD H1 

USDCAD H4 

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