EUR/USD: attempting to break below major trend-line

The EUR/USD pair has reached support from a major multi-year trend-line from the 2000 lows situated at 1.2725. It is possible it will pause and consolidate at this level, or possibly even reverse and start rising, however, the monthly chart looks especially bearish after 3 down months in a row, and if this month ends at the current level or lower then that will be a probable sign of even further weakness. 


The current short-term and very short-term bear trends are also a factor favouring more downside. The major trend-line from 2000 needs to be decisively breached first, however, so I would be 
looking for a break below 1.2690 for confirmation of further downside, with the next target lower at the S3 monthly pivot situated at 1.2593, although the potential for losses is much higher, with 1.2100 as longer-term target.