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Friday, December 25, 2015

Wave analysis and forecast for 18.12 – 25.12

EUR/USD Wave analysis and forecast for 18.12 – 25.12: The pair is undergoing correction. In the medium-term the rise in the pair may continue.

Estimated pivot point is at a level of 1.0520.

Our opinion: Buy the pair from correction above the level of 1.0520 with the target of 1.15 – 1.20.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation of the price below the level of 1.0520 will enable the pair to continue to decline to the levels of 1.0450 – 1.04.

Analysis: The formation of the one-two wave i of 3, which has taken a shape of a wedge, has completed. Currently, it is likely that the local correction is being formed as the wave ii of 3. If this assumption is correct and the price does not breakdown the critical level of 1.0520, after the completion of the correction the pair will continue to rise up to the levels of 1.15 – 1.20.

EURUSD H1

EURUSD H4

GBP/USD Wave analysis and forecast for 18.12 – 25.12: The pair continues to decline.

Estimated pivot point is at a level of 1.5236.

Our opinion: Buy the pair from the correction after breakdown of the level of 1.5236 with the target of 1.57 – 1.59.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation of the price above the level of 1.5236 will trigger the rise in the pair to the levels of 1.57 – 1.59.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the “bearish” correction as the wave B of the senior level is ongoing. At the moment, the decline in the pair is ongoing in triples, which offers a probability of the development of the final diagonal triangle in the wave c of B. If this assumption is correct, in the near future the pair can reverse and begin to rise to the level of 1.5236. Breakdown of this level will confirm the reversal and a chance of the uptrend in the uptrend in the medium term.

GPBUSD H4

GPBUSD Daily

USD/CHF Wave analysis and forecast for 18.12 – 25.12: Probability of decline in the pair remains.

Estimated pivot point is at a level of 1.0329.

Our opinion: Sell the pair from correction below the level of 1.0329 with the target of 0.95.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation of the price above the level of 1.0329 will trigger the rise in the pair to the levels of 1.04 – 1.05.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the downward momentum as the one-two first wave i of C, has completed. Locally, it seems that the upward correction ii of C is being formed. If this assumption is correct, the decline in the pair is likely to continue. Critical level for this scenario is 1.0329. Breakdown of this level will cause the rise in the pair up to 1.04 – 1.0440.

USDCHF H1

USDCHF H4

USD/JPY Wave analysis and forecast for 18.12 – 25.12: The pair is likely to decline.

Estimated pivot point is at a level of 123.55.

Our opinion: Sell the pair from correction below the level of 123.55 with the target of 118.00 – 116.00. In case of breakdown of the level of 123.47 buy with the target of 124.50.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation of the price above the level of 123.55 will enable the pair to continue the rise up to the level of 124.50.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the first one-two wave I has completed in the wave C of the senior level. At the moment, it is likely that the local correction is being formed as the wave ii. If this assumption is correct, after the completion of the correction the pair will continue to decline to the levels of 118.00 – 116.00. Critical level for this scenario is 123.55. Breakdown of this level will enable continuation of the uptrend.

USDJPY H1

USDJPY H4

USD/СAD Wave analysis and forecast for 18.12 – 25.12: The pair continues to rise.

Estimated pivot point is at a level of 1.3669.

Our opinion: Buy the pair from correction above the level of 1.3669 with the target of 1.42.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation of the price below the level of 1.3669 will enable the pair to continue decline to the levels of 1.32 - 1.28, as part of the correction of the senior level.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the upward momentum continues in the fifth wave of the senior level 5 of (3) on the daily timeframe. Locally, it is likely that the momentum of the junior level is being formed in the fifth wave v of 5. If this assumption is correct, the pair will continue to rise up to 1.42. Critical level for this scenario is 1.3669. 

USDCAD H4

USDCAD Daily

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