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Saturday, March 19, 2016

Wave analysis and forecast for 18.03 – 25.03

EUR/USD: Wave analysis and forecast for 18.03 – 25.03: The pair is likely to decline within correction.
Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.1350.

Our opinion: Sell the pair from correction below the level of 1.13501.0820 with the target of 1.1050 – 1.0820. In case of breakout of the level of 1.1350, buy with the target of 1.15 – 1.16.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation of the price above the level of 1.1350 will allow the pair to continue the rise up to 1.15 – 1.16.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the fifth wave (v) of i of 3 has completed. Locally it is likely that the correction has begun as the wave ii of 3. If this assumption is correct, the pair can decline to 1.1050 – 1.0820. Critical level for this scenario is 1.1350. Breakout of this level will trigger the rise in the pair to 1.15 – 1.16.
EURUSD H1

EURUSD H4

EURUSD Daily

GBP/USD: Wave analysis and forecast for 18.03 – 25.03:Correction is nearing completion.
Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.4115.

Our opinion: In the short-term: buy the pair above the level of 1.4218 with the target of 1.4690. In the medium-term: wait for the completion of the impetus and sell below the level of 1.47 with the target of 1.40 – 1.34.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation of the price below the level of 1.4218 will enable the pair to continue decline to the level of 1.34.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the upward correction as the fourth wave 4 of the senior level is nearing completion. It is assumed that a zigzag with the irregular plane has been formed in the wave b of 4. Locally, it seems that the wave с of 4 is being formed, within which the impetus is being developed. If this assumption is correct, in the short-term the pair can first rise to 1.4690, and then reverse and decline in the fifth wave of senior level. Critical level for this scenario is 1.4218.
GPBUSD H1

GPBUSD H4


USD/CHF: Wave analysis and forecast for 18.03 – 25.03:Downtrend continues.
Estimated pivot point is at the level of 0.9912.

Our opinion: Sell the pair from correction below the level of 0.9912 with the target of 0.95 – 0.9470.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation of the price above the level of 0.9912 will allow the pair to continue the rise up to the level of 1.0130 - 1.02.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the downward impetus continues in the third wave iii of C. At the moment it is likely that the third wave of the junior level (iii) of iii is being developed, within which impetus is being formed. If this assumption is correct, the pair will continue to decline to 0.95. Critical level for this scenario is 0.9912.
USDCHF H1

USDCHF H4


USD/JPY: Wave analysis and forecast for 18.03 – 25.03:Downtrend continues.
Estimated pivot point is at the level of 113.84.

Our opinion: Sell the pair from correction below the level of 113.84 with the targets of 107.00 – 106.60.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation of the price above the level of 113.84 will trigger rise up to the level of 116.00.

Analysis: Presumably the formation of the downward impetus continues in the third wave of the senior level. At the moment it is likely that the upward correction has completed as the fourth wave (iv) of iii, which has taken a shape of a triangle. The fifth wave (v) of iii is being developed within which one-two impetus of the junior level is being formed. If this assumption is correct, the pair will continue to decline to 106.60. Critical level for this scenario is 113.84.
USDJPY H1

USDJPY H4


USD/СAD: Wave analysis and forecast for 18.03 – 25.03:Downtrend dominates.
Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.3396.

Our opinion: Wait for the completion of correction and sell the pair below the level of 1.3396 with the target of 1.28.

Alternative scenario: Breakdown and consolidation of the price above the level of 1.3396 will enable the pair to continue the rise up to 1.3950.

Analysis: The decline in the pair continues and it seems that the zigzag will gradually turn into impetus. Locally it is likely that the third wave is nearing completion and upward correction as the fourth wave might develop. If this assumption is correct, after the completion of the correction the pair will continue to decline to 1.28. Critical level for this scenario is 1.3396.
USDCAD H1

USDCAD H4

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