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Friday, August 21, 2015

wave analysis and forecast of 21.08 – 28.08

EUR/USD Wave analysis and forecast of 21.08 – 28.08: Probability of the decline as part of the correction.
Estimated pivot point is at a level of 1.0840.

Our opinion: Wait for the completion of the correction and buy the pair above the level of 1.0840 with the target of 1.1800, in case of the confirmation signals.

Alternative scenario: Breakout of the level of 1.0840 and consolidation below this level will trigger further decrease in price up to 1.07.

Analysis: Presumably, the third wave of the senior level 3 is being formed. Locally, it is likely that the first i of 3, which currently has shape of a diagonal, has completed. If this assumption is correct, following the local correction, the pair will continue to rise to 1.1800. Critical level for this scenario is 1.0840. Breakout of this level will enable the price to go down to 1.07. It is not recommended to sell in the current situation as the formation of the wave extension is possible.
EURUSD H4

EURUSD Daily

GBP/USD Wave analysis and forecast of 21.08 – 28.08: Growth in the pair in likely to continue.
Estimated pivot point is at a level of 1.5555.

Our opinion: Buy the pair from correction above the level of 1.5555 with the target of 1.58 – 1.60.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation of the price below the level of 1.5555 will allow the pair to continue to decline to the level of 1.53 – 1.54.

Analysis: Presumably, the large correction has completed in the wave B, which took a shape of a triangle and the wave C started to develop. Locally, it is likely that the first wave i of C is being formed, within which probably the third wave of the junior level (iii) is being developed. If this assumption is correct and the price does not break down the critical level of 1.5555, the pair can continue to rise up to 1.58 – 1.60.
GPBUSD H4

GPBUSD Daily

USD/CHF Wave analysis and forecast for 21.08 – 28.08: The pair is likely to decline.
Estimated pivot point is at a level of 0.9792.

Our opinion: Sell the pair from correction below the level of 0.9792 with the target of 0.9430 – 0.9130. In case of breakdown of the level of 0.9792, buy with the target of 1.0 – 1.10.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation of the price above the level of 0.9792 will enable the pair to rise up to 1.0 – 1.10.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the large “bearish” correction continues as the wave 2, within which a plane is expected to be formed. Locally, it seems that the wave с of 2 is being formed, within which the one-two impetus as the wave (i) is being developed. If this assumption is correct, the pair will continue to decline to the levels of 0.9430 – 0.9130. Critical level for this scenario is the local high of 0.9792.
USDCHF H4

USDCHF Daily

USD/JPY Wave analysis and forecast of 21.08 – 28.08: Formation of the “bearish” correction.
Estimated pivot point is at a level of 124.56.

Our opinion: Sell the pair from correction below the level of 124.56 with the target of 121.50 – 121.00. In case of breakout of the level of 124.56, buy with the target of 127.55.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation of the price above the level of 124.56 will allow the pair to continue growth up to 127.55.

Analysis: It is likely that the formation of the third wave (3) of the senior level has completed on the daily timeframe. Locally, it seems that the large “bearish” correction as the fourth wave (4) with the target level of 117.00 has started, within which the one-two impetus is being formed as the first wave. If this assumption is correct and the price does not breakdown the critical level of 124.56, the pair will continue to decline to 121.50 – 121.00. In the critical level is broken down, the pair will rise up to 127.55.
USDJPY H4

USDJPY Daily

USD/СAD Wave analysis and forecast of for 21.08 – 28.08: Formation of the local correction.
Estimated pivot point is at a level of 1.3180.

Our opinion: In the short-term: sell the pair from correction below the level of 1.3180 with the target of 1.2785. In the medium-term: wait for the completion of the correction and buy the pair in case of the one-two one-toe impetus and confirming signals, with the target of 1.35 – 1.36.

Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation of the price above the level of 1.3180 will allow the pair to continue growth up to 1.35 – 1.36.

Analysis: Presumably, the formation of the third wave of the senior level iii of 5 has completed. Locally, it seems the correction as the fourth wave iv is being formed and within which the first wave (a) has been formed as a diagonal and the correction in the wave (b). If this assumption is correct, in the short-term, the pair can continue to decline to 1.2785 within the wave (с). Critical level for this scenario is 1.3180. Breakdown of this level will enable the pair to continue growth.
USDCAD H1

USDCAD H4

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