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Friday, January 4, 2019

Wave analysis and forecast for 04/01/2019 – 11/01/2019

                                                 EUR/USD

The pair EUR/USD is still likely to fall. Estimated pivot point is at a level of 1.1476.

Main scenario: short positions will be relevant from corrections below the level of 1.1476 with a target of 1.1200 – 1.1100.
Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation above the level of 1.1476 will allow the pair to continue rising to the levels of 1.1611 – 1.1816.
Analysis: Supposedly, a descending correction of senior level in the form of the wave (2) continues to develop within the daily frame. Presumably the wave С of (2) is developing on H4 time frame, with the wave i of C formed and an ascending correction forming as wave ii of C inside. On the H1 time frame, apparently the third wave iii of C started forming, with the inceptive momentum of junior level in the form of the wave i of (i) of iii completed inside. If the presumption is correct, the pair will logically continue to falling to the levels 1.1200 – 1.1100. The level 1.1476 is critical in this scenario.

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                                                                    GBP/USD

The pair  GBP/USD is still likely to fall. Estimated pivot point is at a level of 1.2810.

Main scenario: short positions will be relevant below the level of 1.2810 with a target of 1.2300 – 1.2150.
Alternative scenario: breakout and consolidation above the level of 1.2810 will allow the pair to continue growing to a level of 1.3175.
Analysis: Supposedly, a descending correction of senior level in the form of the second wave (2) continues forming, with the wave C of (2) developing inside on the daily frame. The wave I of C is supposedly formed in the H4 time frame, and the correction as the wave ii of C has finished. Apparently, the wave iii of C has started developing on the H1 time frame, with the wave (i) of iii formed inside. If the presumption is correct, the pair will logically fall to the levels 1.2300 – 1.2150. The level 1.2810 is critical in this scenario.

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                                                                    USD/CHF

The pair USD/CHF is still likely to fall. Estimated pivot point is at a level of 0.9988.

Main scenario: short positions will be relevant from corrections below the level of 0.9988 with a target of 0.9724 – 0.9618.
Alternative scenario: breakout and consolidation above the level of 0.9988 will allow the pair to continue rising to a level of 1.0122.
Analysis: The first wave of senior level 1 of (3) has been formed on the daily time-frame and the downward correction 2 of (3) is developing now. On H4 timeframe, presumably the local ascending correction of junior level B of (2) has finished in the form of a zigzag and the wave С of (2) has started developing. Apparently, the third wave iii of C continues developing on H1 time frame, with the wave (iii) of iii forming inside. If the presumption is correct, the pair will continue to drop to the levels 0.9724 – 0.9618. The level 0.9988 is critical in this scenario.

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                                                                    USD/JPY

The pair USD/JPY is likely to rise. Estimated pivot point is at a level of 104.46

Main scenario: long positions will be relevant from corrections above the level of 104.46 with a target of 113.66 – 114.50.
Alternative scenario: breakout and consolidation below the level of 104.46 will allow the pair to continue falling to a level of 103.00.
Analysis: Supposedly, the wave of senior level (C) of B continues developing on the daily time frame, with the wave 1 of (C) formed inside. Presumably a local correction has formed as the wave 2 of (C) on the 4-hour time frame. Apparently, the wave 3 of (C) is starting to develop on the H1 time frame, with first wave of junior level (i) of i of 3 formed inside.  If the presumption is correct, the pair will continue to grow to the levels 113.66 – 114.50. The level 104.46 is critical in this scenario.

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                                                                    USD/CAD

The USD/CAD price is being corrected, the pair is still likely to decline. Estimated pivot point is at a level of 1.3660.

Main scenario: short positions will be relevant from corrections below the level of 1.3660 with a target of 1.3330 – 1.3230.
Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation above the level of 1.3660 will allow the pair to continue rising to the level of 1.3800 and higher.
Analysis: Supposedly, a descending correction of senior level in the form of the wave 2 of (5) finished developing within the daily frame and the wave 3 of (5) is forming. An upward momentum finished developing as the first wave i of 3 and a downward correction ii of 3 started forming on the 4-hour time frame. Apparently, the wave (a) of ii is developing in the H1 time frame. If the presumption is correct, the pair will logically continue declining to the levels of 1.3330 – 1.3230. The level 1.3660 is critical in this scenario.

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