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Friday, January 25, 2019

Wave analysis and forecast for 25/01/2019 – 01/02/2019

                                                      EUR/USD

The pair EUR/USD is still likely to fall. Estimated pivot point is at a level of 1.1394.

Main scenario: short positions will be relevant from corrections below the level of 1.1394 with a target of 1.1211 – 1.1150.
Alternative scenario:breakout and consolidation above the level of 1.1394 will allow the pair to continue the rise up to the levels of 1.1460 – 1.1485.
Analysis: Supposedly, a descending correction of senior level in the form of the wave (2) continues developing on the daily time frame with the wave C of (2) developing within. On the H4 time frame, presumably an ascending correction has finished developing in the form of wave  ii of C. On the H1 time frame, apparently, the third wave  iii of С of (2) started forming, with the wave (i) of iii formed and the correction (ii) of iii completed inside. If the presumption is correct, the pair will continue to drop to the levels of 1.1211 – 1.1150. The level  1.1394 is critical in this scenario.​​​​​​​

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                                                                   GBP/USD

The pair GBP/USD is still likely to grow. Estimated pivot point is at a level of 1.3006.

Main scenario: long positions will be relevant above the level of 1.3006 with a target of   1.3303 – 1.3625.
Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below the level of 1.3006 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of 1.2827 – 1.2665.
Analysis: Supposedly, a descending correction of senior level in the form of the second wave (2) finished developing within the daily frame in the form of a zigzag. On the H4 time frame, supposedly, the wave C of (2) finished developing in the form of a wedge and the first counter-trend wave of junior level i of 1 of (3) started forming. Apparently, the wave (iii) of i of 1 continues developing on the H1 time frame.  If this assumption is correct, the pair will continue to rise to 1.3303 – 1.3625. The level  1.3006 is critical in this scenario.

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                                                                    USD/CHF

The pair USD/CHF is still likely to grow. Estimated pivot point is at a level of 0.9914.

Main scenario: long positions will be relevant from corrections above the level of 0.9914 with a target of 1.0126.
Alternative scenario:breakout and consolidation below the level of 0.9914 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels at 0.9801 – 0.9712.
Analysis: The first wave of senior level 1 of (3) has been formed on the daily time-frame and the downward correction 2 of (3) has finished developing. Supposedly, the first counter-trend wave of junior level i of 1 of (3) is forming on H4 time frame. On the H1 time frame, apparently a local correction is nearing completion in the form of the wave (iv) of i. If the presumption is correct, the pair will continue to rise to the level of  1.0126 once the correction has been completed. The level  0.9914 is critical in this scenario.

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                                                                    USD/JPY

The pair USD/JPY is still likely to grow. Estimated pivot point is at a level of 107.73.

Main scenario: long positions will be relevant above the level of  107.73 with a target of 111.42 – 113.66.
Alternative scenario:Breakout and consolidation below the level of  107.73 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of 106.20 – 104.50.
Analysis: Supposedly, the wave of senior level (C) of B continues developing on the daily time frame, with the wave 2 of (C) formed inside. Supposedly, the local correction finished forming as wave 2 of (C) on the H4 time frame and the first counter-trend wave of junior level i of 3 of (C) is forming at the moment. Apparently, the wave (iii) of i is developing on the H1 time frame.  If this assumption is correct, the pair will continue to rise to 111.42 – 113.66. The level  107.73 is critical in this scenario.

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                                                                  USD/CAD

The pair USD/CAD is likely to fall in price. Estimated pivot point is at a level of 1.3375

Main scenario: short positions will be relevant below the level of 1.3375 with a target of 1.3130 – 1.3070.
Alternative scenario:breakout and consolidation above the level of 1.3375 will allow the pair to continue the rise up to the levels of 1.3419 – 1.3477.
Analysis: Supposedly, a descending correction of senior level in the form of the wave 2 of (5) finished developing and the wave 3 of (5) is forming on the daily frame. On the 4-hour time frame, an upward impetus finished developing as the first wave i of 3 and a downward correction ii of 3 is forming at the moment. On H1 time frame, the wave (a) of ii has been formed as an impetus and the downward correction is completed in the form of the wave (b) of ii.. If the presumption is correct, the pair will logically continue to decline to the levels 1.3130 – 1.3070 inside the wave (с) of ii. The level  1.3375 is critical in this scenario.

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